03 March 2021 – Minnesota Prepares

1^st story – How Texas was actually impacted by the recent polar vortex.

• • The facts
    • Wholesale prices for electricity spiked 300-fold, and for natural gas almost as much, and when supplies dwindled firms that had some of either commodity to sell were in line for tremendous short-term profits. But other companies are looking at stupendous losses.
    • The frigid temperatures dammed much of the flow of natural gas, and caused 356 electric power generators across the state to fail at some point last week. Blackouts spread until they covered 4 million households.
      (We’ve seen this in MN too)
  • The stories from the left –
    • Focus on failures in the natural gas and nuclear plants which are not hardened to freezing temperatures in spite of a similar experience in 1989
    • Focus on families facing thousands of dollars of bills
    • Also enjoyed schadenfreude over the deregulated industry not being prepared
      • An example of a private industry being a 3-4 sigma planning system (industry standard, 1 in 250 chance of happening each year, e.g., a 250-yr flood) and getting caught out by a 5 or 6 sigma event (low probability, 1 in 3.4M, – but not really all that low).
        1. Map showed the polar vortex parked right on top of MN and covering most of TX
        2. But how often does this happen anyway?
           A: once every couple of years (~.5/year)
           Science is still out on whether they are getting more frequent, but there is a causal chain suggesting they may be expected to increase. Statistically – this may take a while to prove.
           Although it’s been happening for decades, it’s really ramped up in the last half-century or so (subjective but not statistical yet).
      • Military and government are 4-6 sigma (much more conservative – and more expensive to the taxpayers)
    • The stories from the right focused on wind turbines that had to be shut down.
      • MN turbines are cold-hardened
      • Faked image of helicopter spraying an ice covered wind turbine. From a TEST in Sweden in 2014
      • Want to believe overrules what is actually being reported.
    • The real story – Most of the supply that went offline was coal and natural gas, not wind. About 61% of the energy sources offline in Texas on Wednesday were thermal — that is, power plants that run on coal, natural gas, or nuclear energy — while the rest was from solar and wind farms
    • ERCOT? The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) manages the flow of electric power to more than 26 million Texas customers — representing about 90 percent of the state’s electric load. As the independent system operator for the region, ERCOT schedules power on an electric grid that connects more than 46,500 miles of transmission lines and 680+ generation units. It also performs financial settlement for the competitive wholesale bulk-power market and administers retail switching for 8 million premises in competitive choice areas. ERCOT is a membership-based 501(c)(4) nonprofit corporation, governed by a board of directors and subject to oversight by the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Texas Legislature.

2nd Story. Is there really hope on the horizon? (based on that Rotary presentation)

3^rd story – the CF&D – can it make it without the Republicans?

• • Canada has one with border adjustment
  • EU proposing one in two years
  • China
    • Benefits from subsidies at taxpayer expense
    • Loses if CF&D with border adjustment is in

4^th story – good news on less additional warming/CO2