Senator-Elect Bill Lieske (R-Lonsdale) won his first term to the State Senate this year after defeating Northfield City Councilor Claire Grabau (DFL). 39,000 votes were cast in the election with Lieske gaining 53% of them. Lieske owes his success in part to the fact that Northfield has less impact in the larger Senate 58 District. The bulk of Grabau’s votes came from Northfield which she won by 50 points. Lieske was able to pick up his votes from the townships and other cities around the district including Farmington and parts of New Prague and Rosemont. His victories in these areas allowed him to overcome Grabua’s huge lead in Northfield.
While Northfield has a huge impact on House 58A, its power is greatly reduced in the larger Senate District. In House 58A, Northfield makes up almost half of the votes in the district, in the Senate seat Northfield only makes up a quarter of the votes, behind the Townships, and just barely ahead of Farmington. Also worth nothing the Townships and Small Cities in the Senate District combined make up a much larger portion of the vote than in House 58A.
Could a Democrat Win Senate 58?
The Short Answer: It's unlikely.
The Long Answer: It would be very difficult for Democrats to get the votes they need. Northfield is unlikely too be much help (Read More: Voting Trends in Northfield) so Democrats would need to win votes elsewhere. However, that is a difficult task; in both the 2018 and 2020 elections, Democrats lost in Farmington and New Prague, the 3rd and 4th largest parts of the district. Democrats would need to find a candidate who can appeal to Farmington voters to have their best chance of flipping the district.
Overall Lieske performed better than most other Republican candidate, Lieske was only behind the Republican candidate for Attorney General Jim Schultz. Statewide Schutlz received the most votes of any Republican candidate.
Logan Wells is the Election Guide Editor. You can contact him here.
