Representative-Elect Kristi Pursell (DFL-Northfield) cruised to her first term and owes it all to Northfield. Just over 20,000 votes were cast in the House 58A election, with Pursell winning 54% of the vote. Northfield has the most people in the district and is already a liberal-leaning city, but Pursell gained huge votes amongst college students. In Northfields Ward 1 – Precinct 1, home to mostly Carleton College and the surrounding neighborhoods, Pursell received 1,198 votes; her challenger Gary Bruggenthies (R-Wheatland TWP) received just 97 votes. Across the river, in Northfields Ward 4 – Precinct 2, home to St. Olaf College, Pursell won 920 votes to Bruggenthie’s 69 votes. Outside of Northfield and Dundas, Bruggenthies won Lonsdale, New Prague, and the Townships; however it was not by the margin he needed to overcome the defeat in Northfield.
Northfield has a huge impact on House 58A. With just under 50% of the votes in the district, means that House 58A will likely remain in Democrats hands unless a Republican is able to perform much better in Northfield.
Could a Republican Win House 58A?
The Short Answer: No, probably not.
The Long Answer: Okay, yes, there is a chance, but it would not be easy for Republicans. Republican's best-performing area was Lonsdale, and they aren't going to do much better there (Read More: Voting Trends in Lonsdale), which means Republicans need to do two things.
First, Republicans need to do better in Northfield. The simple fact is Northfield makes up most of the votes in the district, and they can't afford to lose it by 51 points.
Second, there may still be room for Republicans to improve in New Prague and the Townships. While these areas do not have enough votes to win the district, it would certainly help.
For example, let's assume that Bruggenthies had won 72% of the vote in New Prague and the Townships. Bruggenthies would have seen his total vote share increase by 591. The new vote count would be Pursell 10,771 and Bruggenthies 10,072. However, that is a best-case scenario for Republicans, it would be difficult to move the Townships and New Prague as far to the right as Lonsdale, which means that regardless Republicans have to do better in Northfield.
Overall Pursell performed better than almost every other Democrat candidate in House 58A, only the incumbent Sectary of State, Steve Simon did better. Statewide Simon received the most votes of any Democrat candidate.
Logan Wells is the Election Guide Editor. You can contact him here.
