Community News: Weather update on flood conditions 7:20pm 9-24-16

Northfield Police Chief Monte Nelson sent this to KYMN studios…  Please read……..   it’s lengthy but worth reading….
Significant changes…Please read
– Weather Prediction Center – Change from the Saturday morning information.  Risk of exceeding Flash Flood Guidelines (FFG) has been raised from MARGINAL to SLIGHT
– Flood warning effective until 0800 Sunday Sept 25 2016 – this is simply to cover the on-going conditions (flooding) for non-forecast rivers (Cannon and Straight)
– Please note, the Flash Flood Watch and information in the updated short term forecast will supercede any cresting information in flood warning
– Gage readings at Northfield still fluctuating
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS EXTENDED THE
* FLOOD WARNING FOR…
  NORTHWESTERN STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
  SOUTHEASTERN DAKOTA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
  RICE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
  SOUTHWESTERN GOODHUE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA…
  NORTHEASTERN WASECA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
  SOUTHEASTERN LE SUEUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA…

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT SUNDAY
* AT 715 AM CDT… FLOODING CONTINUED ON THE STRAIGHT AND CANNON
  RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. THE STRAIGHT RIVER CRESTED LATE
  THURSDAY NIGHT IN OWATONNA… AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN
  FARIBAULT. THE CANNON RIVER IS VERY SLOWLY RISING IN NORTHFIELD…
  IS CURRENTLY AT 900.8 FEET… AND SHOULD CREST TODAY. THE CANNON
  RIVER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RISE IN MORRISTOWN… IS CURRENTLY AT
  15.3 FEET… AND SHOULD CREST LATER TODAY. THE CANNON RIVER AT
  CANNON FALLS IS VERY SLOWLY RISING… IS CURRENTLY AT 17 FEET…
  AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST TODAY.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
  OWATONNA…FARIBAULT…NORTHFIELD…WASECA…CANNON FALLS…
  WATERVILLE…KENYON…DUNDAS...MEDFORD…STANTON…
  MORRISTOWN AND ELYSIAN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. ALL
INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.
– Flash Flood Watch has been issued
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA…
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…BLUE EARTH…FARIBAULT…
  FREEBORN…LE SUEUR…RICE…STEELE AND WASECA.
* FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE LIKELY…WITH HIGHER
  AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
* THE RAIN MAY COME IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SINCE THE GROUND IS
  ALREADY SATURATED AND FLOODING IS ONGOING IN MANY AREAS…
  ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY DELAY RECOVERY OR SLIGHTLY EXACERBATE
  FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON STREAMS AND IN URBAN AND
  LOW LYING AREAS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
Weather
Severe Weather – Storm Prediction Center
– Marginal risk Saturday for much of central and southern MN
Hazardous Weather Outlook – NWS-C – updated 1315 24 Sept 2016
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STARTING IN FAR WESTERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE COVERAGE AREA.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY PROLONG THE RISK OF FLOODING.
Weather Prediction Center – Change from the Saturday morning information.  Risk of exceeding Flash Flood Guidelines (FFG) has been raised from MARGINAL to SLIGHT  – see text and graphic below.
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM:
15 nautical miles SSE Marshalltown IA  to 25 nautical miles W Des Moines IA to
Denison IA to 20 nautical miles SSE Sheldon IA to
10 nautical miles SW New Ulm MN to 20 nautical miles ESE Lakeville MN to
15 nautical miles SSW Winona MN to 10 nautical miles W Oelwen IA to
15 nautical miles SSE Marshalltown IA.
Short Term Wx Discussion – This afternoon and Tonight – from NWS-C – updated at 1517 9/24/2016
Showers and thunderstorms are developing quickly across eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota on southward.  Models have significantly downplayed the convective coverage and intensity all day – possibly because the extensive cloud cover has eroded and temperatures have warmed into the 80s across southern MN.  This has produced energy aloft values of 1500 Joules/kg within the deep moisture layer with precipitable water values of 1.7-2 inches along the front.  Some models seem to be handling this better with widespread showers and thunderstorms pushing through the region tonight.
The main threat from this activity is heavy rain.  Already there are lines of training thunderstorms across southwest MN.  As this activity builds eastward with time, instability will be trending downward but rich moist air will remain intact along the front.  Soil moisture is in excess of 60{b5761be34e80a16b6d0e4dabc1869c131a263f96a745c82bebdd3b8a4330bfa9} and even higher in some areas of south central MN to west central WI.  Any addition heavy rain would bring the potential for flash flooding and possibly exacerbate ongoing long term flooding.  In collaboration with forecast offices in Aberdeen SD and Des Moines IA – have issued a flash flood watch for areas at greatest risk.  However, if the training activity over Sioux Falls SD area continues, the watch may be extended further west.
Most of the activity should be to the east Sunday morning.  A few showers may persist toward Eau Claire WI but the heavy rain threat should be over by mid-morning.  Dry air should bring a period of clearing before wrap around stratus cloud deck arrive by afternoon.
Long term Wx Discussion – Sunday thru Friday – from NWS-C update at 1517 9/24/2016
Things look to turn quiet and dry for the extended period.  In the big picture the upper trough will move through Sunday night and Monday, then work its way into the Great Lakes by Tuesday.  There have been some differences on model guidance as to what happens after, but all guidance takes it sufficiently east to bring high pressure to our area by Wednesday with a fair stout system for Thursday and Friday before we start to get back into some southwest flow by Saturday.  It may be possible there are some showers Sunday night into Monday – particularly across the north and east.  After that things look dry through the remainder of the period.  Temps will slowly moderate by midweek, then look warm in the latter half of the week as warm advection increases across the region.  There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the Friday/Saturday time frame particularly across the west.
Here is the current forecast:
Saturday– day: mostly sunny, temps mid/high 70s; night: 90{b5761be34e80a16b6d0e4dabc1869c131a263f96a745c82bebdd3b8a4330bfa9} chance of showers and thunderstorms-some storms could produce heavy rain, new rainfall amounts of .5-.75 inches, temps low/mid 60s
Sunday– day: 30{b5761be34e80a16b6d0e4dabc1869c131a263f96a745c82bebdd3b8a4330bfa9} chance of showers and thunderstorms – mainly early morning, temps mid/high 60s; night: cloudy, temps high 40s
Monday– day: mostly sunny, temps low 60s; night:mostly clear, temps mid 40s
Tuesday– day: sunny, temps mid 60s; night: mostly clear, temps mid 40s
Wednesday– day: sunny, temps high 60s; night: mostly clear, temps high 40s
Thursday– day: sunny, temps low 70s; night: partly cloudy, temps low 50s
Friday– day: mostly sunny, temps low 70s; night: partly cloudy, temps low 50s
The short term forecast discussion pretty much says it all.  If the training thunderstorms they are seeing in eastern SD and SW MN move east, we stand to receive more than the .5-1 inch forecasted, potentially up to 2″ of new rain. Unfortunately, clearing skies in these conditions are not necessarily a good thing.  As discussed in the meeting on Friday .5-1 inch probably will influence duration of high water, but not level, above that amount – we will see gages start to rise again.  We are currently at approx. 2014 levels and not the 2010 levels.  The weather in the Cannon and Straight River watersheds over the next 12-18 hours needs to be closely monitored.
Next update – Saturday – late evening depending on weather conditions and rainfall

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