There is a continuing drumbeat of denial about climate change, today we talked about three of the most common objections raised.
But first, we had a special guest. Mary Jo Cristofaro, who was here to tell us about the upcoming Earth Day Celebration on Sat. April 21, right here in Northfield. It should be a great time, see their Facebook page.
Now, on to today’s show!
- There’s no consensus.
- Oh, there’s consensus alright
- “Doubts about the science are being replaced by doubts about the motives of scientists and their political supporters. Once this kind of cynicism takes hold, is there any hope for the truth?”
How climate scepticism turned into something more dangerous. The Guardian, July 7, 2017
- It’s only going to add a 0.1 C!
- Where did you hear that? Try +1 to +6C – which translates to 0.18 to 0.59 meters rise in mean sea level. The chart is blurry, sorry, but the two main points are:
- no model predicts anything less than +1C and the most conservative has about 1.8C increase, and
- the models note that there is uncertainty (that’s why they are shown with bands around their mean projections).
- Of course, for lots of reasons (for example, the earth spins, Thanks, Galileo!) that sea rise is not evenly distributed. And the “best” answer is probably not just the average of the different estimates. The analytical approach that reconciles these models is a form of meta-analysis.
- Where did you hear that? Try +1 to +6C – which translates to 0.18 to 0.59 meters rise in mean sea level. The chart is blurry, sorry, but the two main points are:
- We cannot afford to fix it. No, the truth is we cannot afford to not fix it. Analysis (e.g., by Regional Economic Models, Inc.), Congressional Budget Office) says we can’t afford to not fix it
- Expect billions of taxpayer dollars to be spent protecting naval bases alone ($1.8B just to start on Norfolk Naval Station, per US Army Corps of Engineers) , then add the impact of having FEMA paying for all those houses that are going to be lost to storms and rising tides.
- Compare that to the growth in the economy that REMI predicted based on a carbon dividend approach, and ask which bet do you want to take?
It’s a trick question – we have to pay at least part of the first (it’s too late to stop it all), but we can hedge that bet by taking actions like (2) today.
- Why is there any discussion?
- Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming. This will be the focus of our next show!
