Today we review Earth Day and the celebrations from last month, then tell a couple of stories – then we’ll talk about lessons learned from the coronavirus politics.
First story – Alan reviews data that oceans are at record temperatures already
Second story – Bruce talks about Mauna Loa data – does it show a slowdown in CO2 emissions due to the slowdown in economic activity due to the coronavirus?
- Is Mauna Loa data showing impact of shutdown? Wouldn’t that put to rest the claim “it ain’t us”. Really?
- CO2 data
Recessions, like the 2008-09 financial crisis or even the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, did not cause a discernible drop. And other factors that have tended to drive the curve up more steeply, such as the economic rise of China this century, were not visible as sudden events.
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-hawaii-scientists-seek-signs-economic-slowdown-air/ - Real data https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
- CO2 data
- Skillful models? Gavin Schmidt: The emergent patterns of climate change
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrJJxn-gCdo
Models are not simple curve fits.- Keeling curve is data
- A model uses
- the amount of fossil fuels used in a year
- estimates of crop growth and seasonality
- we see the difference between northern and southern hemisphere summer
- Do we see a slowing of CO2 due to the shutdown?
Maybe – but we didn’t invent statistics so we could “eyeball” the data.
- Roh roh – flat beer? “Beer, seltzer could go flat as coronavirus shuts down CO2 production” Click-bait – misleading headlines to stir fear.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/beer-may-lose-its-fizz-as-co2-supplies-go-flat-during-pandemic/
Third story. Alan recaps Earth Day, 50 years and climate change
Fourth story – CoViD19 became tribal – story is more about our echo chambers than data
CoVid19 became “tribal” quickly, and Climate Change – the story arc “science leads and politics jumps in, behind or ahead of the data”.
