Our show today …
- D-Day, 1945 – and how it parallels climate change today
- heat waves in Siberia
- insects are disappearing.
- Covid as a “natural” experiment (a natural experiment is an economist’s way of saying “as long as we are in this crisis – let’s not forget to collect data”
2nd story – insects are disappearing (Nat Geographic, May 2020)
What do scientists mean by “Extinction events?”
- Ordovician-silurian Extinction: 440 million years ago.
- Devonian Extinction: 365 million years ago.
- Permian-triassic Extinction: 250 million years ago.
- Triassic-jurassic Extinction: 210 million years ago.
- Cretaceous-tertiary Extinction: 65 Million Years Ago.
- Anthropocene 100ya – 12kya (agriculture)
Two notable and well known ones …
- Permian-Triassic (The Great Dying). 252Mya, 96% of marine species and 70% land species. Possible climate change from massive CO2 or methane releases – some of which we are concerned about today as tipping point phenomena
- According to a 2009 paper on the use of the term “tipping points” in climate science and the media, a presentation (pdf) in 2005 by Dr James Hansen of Columbia University’s Earth Institute helped “initiate a tipping point trend in climate change communication that was quickly reflected in public debate”.
- Cretaceous-Paleogene (End of the dinosaurs, 66Mya, comet/asteroid, well understood. Chicxulub crater near Yucatan.
For your consideration …
The windshield phenomenon—car windscreens covered in dead insects after even a short drive through a rural area in Europe and North America—seems also largely to have disappeared; in the 21st century, drivers find they can go an entire summer without noticing it.[2][58] John Rawlins, head of invertebrate zoology at the Carnegie Museum of Natural History, speculated in 2006 that more aerodynamic car design could explain the change.[59] Entomologist Martin Sorg told Science in 2017: “I drive a Land Rover, with the aerodynamics of a refrigerator, and these days it stays clean.” [anecdote]
But is the Sixth extinction different? We can see it happening – but what good is it to be smart and able to see it if you can’t do anything about it? Or WON’T do anything.
4th story – The Economist – the COVID as a natural experiment
- “Seize the moment – The chance to flatten the climate curve”
- Daily emissions were 17% below last year (April)
- Tilts the rate of increase, not a notch in the Keeling curve
- Can’t be solved by just stopping planes, train, and automobiles (transportation)
- Opportunity to implement a carbon tax without as much of a shock to the system.
Our main story today … D-Day, 1945 – and how it parallels climate change today.
- A clear and present danger – to everyone
- People in the middle of it who could not believe it was happening (Jews in Germany)
- Isolationists who did not want to get involved in other people’s problem.
- Special interests in the US who wanted to be the arsenal of democracy – let the war proceed while we can make money on it.
- The Normandy invasion did not end the war, but it was the beginning of the end.
- A carbon fee and dividend would:
- Break loose the political logjam – set the stage for further actions
- Ag to sequester carbon
- Stop depletion allowances – especially for oil
- Why not plant a Trillion trees? – Because it does not solve the problem but it lets you think you have – worst combination
- Break loose the political logjam – set the stage for further actions
