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Our first story – the State of the politics – and KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON.
- Yale says – “people WANT government action”
- We have an all too human tendency to prioritize current risks and discount future threats.
https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-voters/ - Estimated 72% of US adults who think global warming is happening (2020)
(it was ~50-50 in 2014)
so even if politicians are not allowed to change their minds (those dirty flip-floppers), the voters can. - CD1 and CD2 are both at 71% that it is happening
But as a scientist-type, Bruce doesn’t use polls to decide the science,
BUT politicians will …- Estimated 57% of adults who think global warming is mostly caused by human activities (2020)
- CD1 is at 55%
- CD2 is at 53%
- If I were a politician I might say “the farmers can see GW first hand and the city folk rely on second-hand information”
- But as a statistician I know that 53%=55% for this use.
- But, also important to political parties that don’t want to go the way of the Whigs – among young (18-29) voters
- A staggering 80 percent said that climate change is a “major threat” to humanity. And THAT translates to votes.
- Young voters also thought that sustainability initiatives are best handled on a local level.
- Music to my conservative ears – because local controls are harder to override even if you have money – there are 2,775 Townships in MN – hard to control them all, unless you buy State or Federal power and wield it like a Colonial power (just Google “railroads and Federal laws” to read
A number of federal laws are controlling, but three commonly found to preempt state and local attempts to regulate railroad activities are the- Interstate Commerce Commission Termination Act of 1995,
- Federal Railroad Safety Act of 1970, and
- Noise Control Act of 1972.
- Music to my conservative ears – because local controls are harder to override even if you have money – there are 2,775 Townships in MN – hard to control them all, unless you buy State or Federal power and wield it like a Colonial power (just Google “railroads and Federal laws” to read
- Estimated 57% of adults who think global warming is mostly caused by human activities (2020)
Our second story – executive orders, regulations and subsidies
- Executive Orders have force of law – but often get challenged. Lots of EOs under Obama and Trump
- Regulations – passed by Congress, force of law.
- Separate regulations for different favored patches.
- examplss include CAFE standards for automotive efficiency
- Subsidies – pick winners and losers – really hated by true conservatives – not so much by crony capitalists who count on political power to do what markets can’t – which is to make their losing ideas make a profit.
Our third story – pricing carbon
- Reading Strangers In Their Own Land by Hochschild – about the 2016 election. She, a “Liberal” visited the parts of the country who voted for Trump.
- How could they vote against their own interests?
A standard failure to step into the path walked by “the others” – she imputes ot others her own prejudices.
Braver Angels is my guide on the issue of walking other’s paths. - In Louisiana they live with the failure of the regulatory approach.
Bayou d’Inde (“Bayoo d’end”) - Iowa and the CWA – Iowa DNR still not enforcing Clean Water Act (as of 2012)
- Non-point emissions
- Ag exceptions
- How could they vote against their own interests?
- Preferred by economists – taxing pollution – apply tax revenue to the debt or to lower taxes
- But – as preferred by pragmatists – a direct to taxpayers dividend:
- Immediately corrects for impact on poor – who must view the call to “buy Electric Vehicles” with some amusement.
- Helps ensure political will to keep it in place – people like those checks – just look at Alaska’s oil dividend
- Of special interest for CD1/CD2 – an exception for agricultural use fuels.
- Already have a bill in Congress – H.R.763 – Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act of 2019
Conservatives may find it important to act to pass this market solution BEFORE a new administration pushes Green New Deal on US.
Our final story – who to contact
If you run into any elected official – from President on down to dog catcher – ask them to support HR763
Even better than an accidental encounter – LTEs, op-eds, and CALL your representatives.
